I'd nearly forgotten about it, but thanks to the link list over at the blog Making Light, I remember this little bet placed two years ago by National Review screed-ist Jonah Goldberg during a nasty blog debate with Juan Cole:

Anyway, I do think my judgment is superior to his when it comes to the big picture. So, I have an idea: Since he doesn't want to debate anything except his own brilliance, let's make a bet. I predict that Iraq won't have a civil war, that it will have a viable constitution, and that a majority of Iraqis and Americans will, in two years time, agree that the war was worth it. I'll bet $1,000 (which I can hardly spare right now). This way neither of us can hide behind clever word play or CV reading. If there's another reasonable wager Cole wants to offer which would measure our judgment, I'm all ears. Money where your mouth is, doc.

One caveat: Because I don't think it's right to bet on such serious matters for personal gain, if I win, I'll donate the money to the USO. He can give it to the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade or whatever his favorite charity is.

What a jackass.

Well, two years to the day have passed, and Mr. Goldberg will be hard-pressed to weasel word his way into convincing anyone that he won the bet, what with stories like Gallup: Bush Approval Rating at 32%, Hits New Low on Iraq and Bush Approval Rating Hits Low of 30% in Newsweek Poll (Update1).

He won't be able to donate any winnings to the "Pointless Sock-Puppets of George W. Bush" fund, or whatever his favourite charity is.

The question remains: will he pay up?

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